Multiply ALONG branches, add BETWEEN paths
Probability of a sequence = multiply along its branches. For an event that can happen several ways, add the probabilities of each complete path.
Without replacement changes the second branch
If the item is not replaced, the total and the relevant count both drop by on the second pick, so the second-set probabilities differ from the first.
"At least one" — use the complement
is usually the quickest route.
Drawn from real examiner reports.
Counts, not probabilities, on branches
The branches of a tree carry PROBABILITIES (fractions or decimals), not whole-number counts. Writing and from "3 red, 2 blue" is wrong — write and . Also give each branch to the accuracy the question asks for.
A reported error: integer values on the branches.
Denominator unchanged (without replacement)
Without replacement, the second pick has a smaller total, so the denominators must change. Treating it like "with replacement" (same denominators on the second set) scores nothing. From counters, a second pick is out of , e.g. , not .
A reported error: denominators left unchanged scored no marks.
Counting only one order for "one of each"
For "one red and one blue" there are TWO paths — red-then-blue and blue-then-red — and you must add both. Counting only one order halves the answer, e.g. giving instead of .
A reported error: only one of the two products counted.
Adding probabilities to more than 1
Along a single path you MULTIPLY the branch probabilities; adding them instead can give a value above , which is impossible. Add only BETWEEN separate complete paths. If a path probability comes out greater than , you have added where you should have multiplied.
A reported error on tree-diagram questions.
Reducing the total but not the numerator
Without replacement, BOTH numbers change on the second pick: the total drops by AND the count of the colour just taken drops by . After taking one red from red of , the next red branch is — not (numerator forgotten) and not (nothing changed).
Adding all paths for "at least one"
For "at least one", adding up every favourable path is slow and error-prone. Use the complement instead: . E.g. .
Label the second set of branches
Always label the second-pick branches (and their probabilities) — unlabelled branches lose marks even with correct arithmetic.
Check each pair of branches sums to 1
At every branch point the probabilities must add to . Use this to fill in a missing branch (e.g. the "not red" branch is ) and to catch slips before multiplying along paths.
For "one of each", add both orders
When order is not specified (e.g. "one red and one blue"), list every path that fits — here red-then-blue and blue-then-red — multiply along each, then add the results. Missing a path is the most common way to lose these marks.
Probabilities on each pair of branches add to . Write them as fractions or decimals, never as whole-number counts.
On a tree diagram, when do you multiply and when do you add?
A bag has red and blue counters. A counter is taken, its colour noted, and replaced; then a second is taken. Find the probability that both are red.